What is OPR?
Offensive Production Rating (OPR) is a composite metric that measures a team's expected offensive output per game. It combines two key factors:
- Efficiency (EPPP - Earned Points Per Possession) - how well a team scores
- Pace - how many possessions a team uses per game
OPR answers a simple but important question: How many points does a team expect to earn from field goals in a typical game?
Why OPR Matters
Traditional metrics like Points Per Game (PPG) don't tell the whole story:
- A team might score a lot simply because they play fast and have more possessions
- Another team might score less but be extremely efficient with each possession
- It's hard to compare a fast, high-volume team with a slow, methodical team
OPR solves this by showing the combined effect of efficiency and tempo, giving you the best measure of true offensive production.
How is OPR Calculated?
The formula is simple:
OPR = EPPP × Pace
Where:
- EPPP = Earned Points Per Possession (points from 2s and 3s, not free throws)
- Pace = Estimated possessions per 32-minute regulation game
Example Calculation
Team A: High efficiency, slow pace
- EPPP: 0.84 (scores 0.84 earned points per possession)
- Pace: 57.2 possessions per game
- OPR: 0.84 × 57.2 = 48.0
Team B: Moderate efficiency, fast pace
- EPPP: 0.75 (scores 0.75 earned points per possession)
- Pace: 61.1 possessions per game
- OPR: 0.75 × 61.1 = 45.8
Even though Team B plays faster and has more scoring opportunities, Team A's superior efficiency gives them higher overall production.
Interpreting OPR Values
OPR values typically range from 25-65 in high school girls basketball:
| OPR Range | Interpretation | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| 50+ | Elite | Dominant offensive production - expect to win most games on offense alone |
| 45-50 | Above Average | Strong offense that consistently produces points |
| 38-45 | Average | Typical production for a competitive team |
| Below 38 | Below Average | May struggle to score consistently |
What's a "Good" OPR?
A "good" OPR depends on your league:
- In the WOAC conference, elite teams typically have OPR around 47-52
- Average conference teams fall around 40-45
- Lower-tier teams may be in the 32-38 range
OPR vs EPPP: What's the Difference?
Both metrics measure offensive quality, but they answer different questions:
| Metric | Question Answered | Best For |
|---|---|---|
| EPPP | "How efficiently does a team score per possession?" | Evaluating shooting and execution quality |
| OPR | "How many points does a team expect to produce per game?" | Comparing total offensive output |
When to Use Each
Use EPPP when you want to know:
- Pure shooting efficiency
- Half-court offense effectiveness
- How well a team converts possessions
Use OPR when you want to know:
- Total expected scoring output
- Which team produces more offense overall
- How efficiency and pace combine for results
Where You'll See OPR
Team Analytics Page
On the Analytics page (/teams/analytics), you'll find:
- Most Productive highlight card showing the team with the highest OPR
- OPR column in the comparison table with visual progress bars
- Badges on teams that lead in OPR
Team Pages
Individual team pages show both EPPP and OPR in the advanced statistics section, allowing you to see both efficiency and overall production.
The Trade-Off: Efficiency vs Pace
OPR reveals interesting strategic trade-offs:
High Efficiency, Low Pace
- Style: Deliberate, half-court offense
- Pros: Fewer turnovers, better shot selection
- Cons: Fewer scoring opportunities
- Example OPR: 0.85 EPPP × 55 pace = 46.75
Moderate Efficiency, High Pace
- Style: Up-tempo, transition offense
- Pros: More possessions, fast break points
- Cons: More turnovers, tired legs
- Example OPR: 0.72 EPPP × 65 pace = 46.80
Notice how both teams can achieve similar OPR through completely different styles!
Using OPR for Game Predictions
When two teams meet, comparing their OPRs gives insight into the matchup:
- Similar OPR: Expect a competitive game
- 10+ OPR difference: The higher OPR team is favored significantly
- Style clash: When a high-efficiency team meets a high-pace team, watch who controls tempo
Example Matchup Analysis
Team A (OPR: 48.5)
- EPPP: 0.82, Pace: 59.1
- Balanced approach
Team B (OPR: 44.2)
- EPPP: 0.73, Pace: 60.5
- Fast but less efficient
Team A's 4.3 OPR advantage suggests they should outscore Team B by about 4-5 points per game on average, assuming both play to their season averages.
Common Questions
Q: Why use OPR instead of Points Per Game?
A: Points Per Game includes free throws and is affected by factors like foul frequency and opponent strategy. OPR focuses on earned points from field goals, giving a purer measure of offensive production that you control.
Q: Can a slow team have a high OPR?
A: Absolutely! If a team is highly efficient (high EPPP), they can have excellent OPR even with lower pace. The key is that their efficiency more than compensates for fewer possessions.
Q: What if a team has high pace but low EPPP?
A: They might score a lot of points but have an average OPR. This often indicates a team that takes many shots but doesn't convert efficiently - they're creating opportunities but not capitalizing.
Q: How does OPR relate to winning?
A: Higher OPR generally correlates with more wins, but defense matters too. A team with elite OPR but poor defense might still struggle. Think of OPR as half the equation - it shows offensive capability, not overall team strength.
Industry Context
OPR is inspired by metrics used at higher levels of basketball:
- KenPom's Adjusted Offensive Efficiency rates college teams similarly
- NBA Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions) follows the same principle
- The concept comes from Dean Oliver's "Four Factors" framework
We've adapted these concepts for high school girls basketball where player minutes aren't available, using team-level pace and efficiency metrics.
Related Metrics
Understanding OPR works best alongside these other metrics:
- Pace - Possessions per game (the tempo component)
- EPPP - Earned Points Per Possession (the efficiency component)
- HG-TPS - Individual player performance scores
Summary
Offensive Production Rating (OPR) combines efficiency and pace to show true offensive production:
- Formula: OPR = EPPP × Pace
- Meaning: Expected earned points per game from field goals
- Elite threshold: 50+ indicates dominant offense
- Use case: Comparing teams with different playing styles
Look for the OPR column on the Team Analytics page and the "Most Productive" highlight card to quickly identify the best offensive teams in the conference!
Want to learn more? Check out these related help articles:
- Understanding the Pace Metric - Deep dive into game tempo
- Understanding Statistics - Overview of all basketball stats
- Understanding the Performance Score - Individual player evaluation